Global Economy Poised for Uneven Regional Growth in 2012

As challenges to the global economy intensify, regional growth is likely to diverge next year. During 2012, we expect stronger gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Japan and the US, while economic growth in many European countries is likely to decelerate sharply or even contract a bit.  

Europe is the epicenter of global weakness. We now expect the European economy as a whole to contract modestly (by 0.1%) in 2012. This change in our view on Europe prompted us to reduce our estimates of global GDP growth to 2.8% for 2011 and 2.8% for 2012. (more…)


Can the US Become a Magnet for Manufacturing?

It’s been a long time since the US has been widely appreciated as a good place for multinational companies to locate new manufacturing plants. Chinese labor is cheap, and emerging markets are increasingly efficient, so why should a global automaker or technology giant choose to manufacture in the US?

The answer is because the US has dramatically improved its cost advantage versus industrialized countries, and has narrowed the gap with emerging markets as well. (more…)