Will Emerging Market Earnings Rebound in 2013?

For two years, emerging markets companies have delivered inferior earnings growth and investment returns compared to peers in sluggish developed market economies. Now, the consensus is that earnings growth will catapult from near-zero in 2012 to 13 per cent in 2013. Hopes were high at the end of 2010 and 2011, too, yet analysts were then forced to revise down their earnings estimates. Will 2013 represent another triumph of hope over experience? (more…)


Read More


If It’s All About Macro These Days, Why Haven’t EM Stocks Done Well?

It doesn’t seem to make sense. Superior macroeconomic fundamentals in emerging countries have not led to stronger—or even positive—equity returns over the last two years. Since the beginning of 2011, the unhedged return in US dollars of the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index has been (10)%, while the MSCI World Index has delivered 6.5%. What’s going on?

(more…)


Read More