Deglobalization Redraws the Investment Map

Hayden Briscoe and Vincent Tsui

Divergence between economies and financial markets has been a key macroeconomic trend over the last few years, and reflects in part the deglobalization of the worldwide supply chain. We expect the big winners to be countries and regions with large internal markets; the losers will be smaller countries which have yet to move up the export value chain.

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Clock Will Be Ticking for Greece’s New Government

Darren Williams and Dennis Shen

Greece is holding early parliamentary elections on January 25. A victory for the anti-austerity Syriza party would probably trigger tense negotiations with the country’s official lenders and fresh volatility in Greek government bond markets. But the expected launch of ECB QE should mitigate contagion to the rest of the periphery. (more…)


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Will New Greek Drama Threaten European Periphery?

Darren Williams (pictured) and Dennis Shen

Markets are reacting badly to Greek plans to exit its bailout program early. Uncertainties are being heightened by the prospect of early general elections. The end-result has been a sharp sell-off in Greek sovereign bonds, which has raised fresh concerns about the potential for spillover from Greek risks to other peripheral markets.  (more…)


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In EM, Beware Commodity Riches Without Policy Smarts

By Fernando Losada (pictured) and Alexander Perjessy of AllianceBernstein (NYSE:AB)

Fixed-income investors often divide emerging markets into commodity exporters and commodity importers. We think this overlooks an important reality: commodity wealth is not the sole—or even the most important—driver of EM performance. (more…)


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Draghi Sharpens “Three Arrows” for Europe

When the European Central Bank’s Governing Council convenes tomorrow in Frankfurt, there will be plenty of talk about Mario Draghi’s recent speech at Jackson Hole. Not only did this open the door to a large-scale quantitative easing (QE) programme, it may in time be seen as a pivotal moment in the evolution of the euro area’s policy framework as it attempts to fend off the forces of deflation. (more…)


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