Predicting Death to Find Life in Emerging Market Stocks

Over the past year, investors have become excessively cautious about emerging markets. To compensate for the additional uncertainty, many underestimate the upside potential. Paradoxically, to get a better handle on the risks, we believe they should assume the worst. By using this “pre-mortem” approach, not only do they have a better chance of avoiding disaster, but they can also more accurately quantify the rewards. (more…)


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Is Asian Turbulence a Win for China?

While this week’s sell-off in Asian currency and bond markets does not, as yet, amount to a crisis in our view, it is obviously cause for concern. At this stage, we think two outcomes are likely: one is that central banks and supranational funding agencies will work together to avert a full-blown crisis; the other is that China will emerge with its power and prestige as a regional financial powerhouse considerably enhanced. (more…)


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Triangulating a Truer Course Through Emerging Markets

Where can you find a car market which will double in size in the next five years? Brazil and Russia might be obvious places to look, but would you have expected Chile, Colombia, Ukraine and Vietnam? Picking the next big themes in emerging consumer markets is even harder than in the well-researched developed world. To get a better handle, we think, requires a triangular approach. (more…)


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