Emerging Market Investors Don't Have to Take Volatility Lying Down

We believe that emerging markets often offer better growth prospects than most developed markets. But, as my colleague Morgan Harting argues, many investors are not exploiting the full potential—often because they are afraid of volatility.

Broadening the Opportunity Set

The International Monetary Fund forecasts that emerging-market (EM) economies’ share of purchasing-power-adjusted global economic activity will reach 54% by 2016. Yet, while exposures vary widely, policy allocations of just 5% to EM equities are typical. This is less than half the nearly 13% that emerging markets represent in the MSCI All Country World Index. 

Historically, stocks have provided the best way to participate in the long-term economic growth of these countries. But many investors are reluctant to increase their EM stock exposure as volatility remains much higher than in developed markets. 

But investors don’t have to limit themselves to stocks when seeking to profit from emerging markets. There are multiple potential beneficiaries of economic growth in these countries, including bonds and currencies—and even developed-market stocks (because some developed-market companies sell into emerging markets). These asset classes benefit from growth in different ways, giving investors greater diversification and the potential to reduce volatility. 

Using bonds to offset the volatility of stocks has only recently become a viable strategy in emerging markets. The EM bond universe is growing and maturing. It includes both sovereign and corporate bonds, denominated in either US dollars or local currency. 

These sectors all have different risk/return profiles, thus adding multiple sources of diversification. At an aggregate level, EM stocks and bonds exhibit greater correlation with each other than developed stocks and bonds, because of global investors’ tendency to treat EM stocks and bonds as one “risk asset”. However, at the country level, there is still substantial variation in correlation. 

Simply bolting together EM equity and debt portfolios can fail to capture the most attractive part of company capital structures. For example, if a company has strong cash flow and a solid balance sheet, its financial strength might make it appear attractive to both stock and bond investors. So a strategy that bolted together a stock manager with a bond manager would most likely result in a portfolio that held both the stock and bonds of the company. 

But if investors are in a position to make relative value judgments across a company’s capital structure, they can determine whether the stocks or bonds hold more value, and focus their allocation accordingly. For example, today we are seeing examples of strong EM companies trading as low as around four times earnings. In some cases we see much greater upside for stock investors if these companies merely meet their earnings expectations and see a modest increase in their earnings multiples. 

In summary, we believe that, by broadening the opportunity set, an unconstrained approach gives investors access to more and different asset classes, countries, currencies and securities than a stand-alone debt or equity portfolio does. Since it allows for greater flexibility to seek higher risk-adjusted returns and greater diversification to reduce portfolio volatility, we believe that this strategy provides investors with new ways to succeed in some of the world’s most exciting economies.

MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations, and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indices, any securities or financial products. This report is not approved, reviewed or produced by MSCI.

The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AllianceBernstein portfolio teams.

Sharon E. Fay, CFA

Head and Chief Investment Officer—Equities
Sharon E. Fay was named Head and Chief Investment Officer of Equities in July 2010. She is responsible for overseeing AB’s portfolio management and research activities relating to all equity investment portfolios. Previously, Fay served as CIO of Global Value Equities from 2003 to 2014. From 1999 to 2006, she was CIO of European and UK Value Equities, serving as co-CIO from 2003 to 2006 after being named CIO of Global Value Equities in 2003. From 1997 to 1999, Fay was CIO of Canadian Value Equities. Prior to that, she had been a senior portfolio manager of International Value Equities since 1995. Fay joined the firm in 1990 as a research analyst, subsequently launching Canadian Value, the firm’s first single-market service focused outside the US. She then went on to launch the company’s UK and European Equity services and build Bernstein’s London office, home of its first portfolio management and research team based outside the US. Fay holds a BA from Brown University and an MBA from Harvard Business School. She is a CFA charterholder. Location: New York

Morgan C. Harting, CFA, CAIA

Portfolio Manager—Multi-Asset Solutions
Morgan C. Harting is the lead Portfolio Manager for all Multi-Asset Income strategies. He also manages the Emerging Markets Multi-Asset Portfolio and is a member of the portfolio team for the Frontier Emerging Markets Portfolios. Harting joined AllianceBernstein in 2007 as part of the global and emerging markets equities portfolio-management team. Prior to that, he was a sovereign-debt analyst, first at Standard & Poor’s and then at Fitch Ratings, where he was a senior director. Harting holds a BA from Wesleyan University, and both an MA in international relations and an MBA from Yale University, where he was a graduate teaching fellow in international economics. He is a CFA charterholder and a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA). Location: New York

Related Posts